by Elizabeth Kelly
Navigating the Canadian real estate market has been a challenge for investors in recent years, with many eagerly anticipating signs of a potential comeback. While realtors and economic analysts often focus on traditional metrics like the sales-to-new listings ratio, months of inventory, and pricing trends, experienced real estate investors keep an eye on less-common indicators that offer unique insights. Let’s explore some unconventional signs of a market recovery that investors can track independently.
If you’re seeing a noticeable reduction in ‘For Sale’ signs, especially in neighbourhoods known for starter homes, this is a key indicator. This can be linked to lower interest rates and increased employment stability, prompting a shift from renting to buying. The decrease in available starter homes for sale suggests a changing market dynamic, indicating heightened buyer activity.
A decline in the number of properties under power of sale/foreclosure or tied up in contracts with wholesalers is a significant indicator. As excess supply is absorbed, less-motivated sellers are inclined to return to listing their properties on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). The reduction in distressed property availability signals a market recovery, indicating a resurgence of properties returning to the open market.
An increase in the number of active mortgage brokers and real estate agents is a noteworthy indicator of market activity. During quieter market periods, many mortgage brokers and realtors diversify their income streams. An upswing in the engagement of these professionals in real estate transactions suggests renewed confidence in the market and an expectation of increased business opportunities.
Fewer commercial units available for rent, signalling a decline in vacancy rates, is a crucial indicator of economic improvement. As economic conditions strengthen and entrepreneurs feel more confident, there tends to be a decrease in commercial property vacancies. The reduction in available commercial units for rent signals a potential uptick in business activities, reflecting a positive shift in the overall economic landscape.
While widely recognized metrics provide valuable insights into real estate market trends, savvy real estate investors understand the importance of keeping an eye on less-conventional indicators. Monitoring factors such as the number of ‘For Sale’ signs in starter home neighbourhoods, distressed property availability, the activity of mortgage brokers and realtors, and commercial vacancy rates can provide a more nuanced understanding of market recovery. By combining traditional and unconventional indicators, investors can make informed decisions, positioning themselves strategically in a recovering real estate market.
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Elizabeth Kelly is a seasoned real estate investor whose journey began with purchasing her first investment property in 2005. Partnering with her husband Emmett, they navigated challenges, learned from experiences, and grew their portfolio to hundreds of doors, specializing in various strategies including rent-to-own and property management. Passionate about empowering others, Elizabeth founded Elizabeth Kelly Consulting in 2020, offering personalized support and strategic planning for investors seeking to start or scale their real estate ventures with integrity and professionalism.
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